Last data update: May 06, 2024. (Total: 46732 publications since 2009)
Records 1-30 (of 380 Records) |
Query Trace: Walker T[original query] |
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Durability of original monovalent mRNA vaccine effectiveness against COVID-19 Omicron-associated hospitalization in children and adolescents - United States, 2021-2023
Zambrano LD , Newhams MM , Simeone RM , Payne AB , Wu M , Orzel-Lockwood AO , Halasa NB , Calixte JM , Pannaraj PS , Mongkolrattanothai K , Boom JA , Sahni LC , Kamidani S , Chiotos K , Cameron MA , Maddux AB , Irby K , Schuster JE , Mack EH , Biggs A , Coates BM , Michelson KN , Bline KE , Nofziger RA , Crandall H , Hobbs CV , Gertz SJ , Heidemann SM , Bradford TT , Walker TC , Schwartz SP , Staat MA , Bhumbra SS , Hume JR , Kong M , Stockwell MS , Connors TJ , Cullimore ML , Flori HR , Levy ER , Cvijanovich NZ , Zinter MS , Maamari M , Bowens C , Zerr DM , Guzman-Cottrill JA , Gonzalez I , Campbell AP , Randolph AG . MMWR Morb Mortal Wkly Rep 2024 73 (15) 330-338 Pediatric COVID-19 vaccination is effective in preventing COVID-19-related hospitalization, but duration of protection of the original monovalent vaccine during SARS-CoV-2 Omicron predominance merits evaluation, particularly given low coverage with updated COVID-19 vaccines. During December 19, 2021-October 29, 2023, the Overcoming COVID-19 Network evaluated vaccine effectiveness (VE) of ≥2 original monovalent COVID-19 mRNA vaccine doses against COVID-19-related hospitalization and critical illness among U.S. children and adolescents aged 5-18 years, using a case-control design. Too few children and adolescents received bivalent or updated monovalent vaccines to separately evaluate their effectiveness. Most case-patients (persons with a positive SARS-CoV-2 test result) were unvaccinated, despite the high frequency of reported underlying conditions associated with severe COVID-19. VE of the original monovalent vaccine against COVID-19-related hospitalizations was 52% (95% CI = 33%-66%) when the most recent dose was administered <120 days before hospitalization and 19% (95% CI = 2%-32%) if the interval was 120-364 days. VE of the original monovalent vaccine against COVID-19-related hospitalization was 31% (95% CI = 18%-43%) if the last dose was received any time within the previous year. VE against critical COVID-19-related illness, defined as receipt of noninvasive or invasive mechanical ventilation, vasoactive infusions, extracorporeal membrane oxygenation, and illness resulting in death, was 57% (95% CI = 21%-76%) when the most recent dose was received <120 days before hospitalization, 25% (95% CI = -9% to 49%) if it was received 120-364 days before hospitalization, and 38% (95% CI = 15%-55%) if the last dose was received any time within the previous year. VE was similar after excluding children and adolescents with documented immunocompromising conditions. Because of the low frequency of children who received updated COVID-19 vaccines and waning effectiveness of original monovalent doses, these data support CDC recommendations that all children and adolescents receive updated COVID-19 vaccines to protect against severe COVID-19. |
Tuberculosis - United States, 2023
Williams PM , Pratt RH , Walker WL , Price SF , Stewart RJ , Feng PI . MMWR Morb Mortal Wkly Rep 2024 73 (12) 265-270 After 27 years of declining U.S. tuberculosis (TB) case counts, the number of TB cases declined considerably in 2020, coinciding with the COVID-19 pandemic. For this analysis, TB case counts were obtained from the National TB Surveillance System. U.S. Census Bureau population estimates were used to calculate rates overall, by jurisdiction, birth origin, race and ethnicity, and age group. Since 2020, TB case counts and rates have increased each year. During 2023, a total of 9,615 TB cases were provisionally reported by the 50 U.S. states and the District of Columbia (DC), representing an increase of 1,295 cases (16%) as compared with 2022. The rate in 2023 (2.9 per 100,000 persons) also increased compared with that in 2022 (2.5). Forty states and DC reported increases in 2023 in both case counts and rates. National case counts increased among all age groups and among both U.S.-born and non-U.S.-born persons. Although TB incidence in the United States is among the lowest in the world and most U.S. residents are at minimal risk, TB continues to cause substantial global morbidity and mortality. This postpandemic increase in U.S. cases highlights the importance of continuing to engage communities with higher TB rates and their medical providers in TB elimination efforts and strengthening the capacity in public health programs to carry out critical disease control and prevention strategies. |
Size Separation of Amosite by Filtration and Shaking Methods
Lee T , Walker R , Hummer J , Ashley E , Mischler S . Asbestos Other Elongate Miner Part (2021) 12/28/2021 1632 265-280 The objectives of this study are (1) to separate fibrous grunerite (amosite) by its length using filtration and shaking techniques utilized in a previous study and (2) to create two distinct length groups (short and long) of the amosite with higher output in a cost-effective way. The shaking system included an electrodynamic exciter, a linear power amplifier, and an audio-frequency signal generator and was attached to a cowl sampler as a funnel loaded with a polycarbonate filter. A suspension of amosite was passed through the 10-μm pore size polycarbonate filter in the shaking system and was transferred to a filtration system through five different pore sizes of polycarbonate membrane filters in series from the top: 10-, 5-, 2-, 1-, and 0.2-μm pore sizes. Each polycarbonate filter was tightly clamped with two conductive 25-mm spacers with a 25-mm stainless steel support screen to prevent leakage. The amosite length and diameter were manually measured with images from a field emission scanning electron microscope (FESEM). A sequence of fields was selected at random locations, and an image of each field was acquired. The length and width of approximately 500 fibers for each sample were measured with ImageJ software. Two significantly different length groups (short and long) of amosite were collected (p <0.05). Approximately 95% of separated amosite (n = 499) using the filtration system were shorter than 5 μm (short fiber group), and approximately 80% of separated amosite (n = 503) using the shaking system were longer than 5 μm (long fiber group). |
Prediction of pyrazinamide resistance in Mycobacterium tuberculosis using structure-based machine-learning approaches
Carter JJ , Walker TM , Walker AS , Whitfield MG , Morlock GP , Lynch CI , Adlard D , Peto TEA , Posey JE , Crook DW , Fowler PW . JAC Antimicrob Resist 2024 6 (2) dlae037 BACKGROUND: Pyrazinamide is one of four first-line antibiotics used to treat tuberculosis; however, antibiotic susceptibility testing for pyrazinamide is challenging. Resistance to pyrazinamide is primarily driven by genetic variation in pncA, encoding an enzyme that converts pyrazinamide into its active form. METHODS: We curated a dataset of 664 non-redundant, missense amino acid mutations in PncA with associated high-confidence phenotypes from published studies and then trained three different machine-learning models to predict pyrazinamide resistance. All models had access to a range of protein structural-, chemical- and sequence-based features. RESULTS: The best model, a gradient-boosted decision tree, achieved a sensitivity of 80.2% and a specificity of 76.9% on the hold-out test dataset. The clinical performance of the models was then estimated by predicting the binary pyrazinamide resistance phenotype of 4027 samples harbouring 367 unique missense mutations in pncA derived from 24 231 clinical isolates. CONCLUSIONS: This work demonstrates how machine learning can enhance the sensitivity/specificity of pyrazinamide resistance prediction in genetics-based clinical microbiology workflows, highlights novel mutations for future biochemical investigation, and is a proof of concept for using this approach in other drugs. |
Inter-species gene flow drives ongoing evolution of Streptococcus pyogenes and Streptococcus dysgalactiae subsp. equisimilis
Xie O , Morris JM , Hayes AJ , Towers RJ , Jespersen MG , Lees JA , Ben Zakour NL , Berking O , Baines SL , Carter GP , Tonkin-Hill G , Schrieber L , McIntyre L , Lacey JA , James TB , Sriprakash KS , Beatson SA , Hasegawa T , Giffard P , Steer AC , Batzloff MR , Beall BW , Pinho MD , Ramirez M , Bessen DE , Dougan G , Bentley SD , Walker MJ , Currie BJ , Tong SYC , McMillan DJ , Davies MR . Nat Commun 2024 15 (1) 2286 Streptococcus dysgalactiae subsp. equisimilis (SDSE) is an emerging cause of human infection with invasive disease incidence and clinical manifestations comparable to the closely related species, Streptococcus pyogenes. Through systematic genomic analyses of 501 disseminated SDSE strains, we demonstrate extensive overlap between the genomes of SDSE and S. pyogenes. More than 75% of core genes are shared between the two species with one third demonstrating evidence of cross-species recombination. Twenty-five percent of mobile genetic element (MGE) clusters and 16 of 55 SDSE MGE insertion regions were shared across species. Assessing potential cross-protection from leading S. pyogenes vaccine candidates on SDSE, 12/34 preclinical vaccine antigen genes were shown to be present in >99% of isolates of both species. Relevant to possible vaccine evasion, six vaccine candidate genes demonstrated evidence of inter-species recombination. These findings demonstrate previously unappreciated levels of genomic overlap between these closely related pathogens with implications for streptococcal pathobiology, disease surveillance and prevention. |
Hyperlocal lessons from the COVID-19 pandemic: Toward an equity-centered implementation science approach
Manns BJ , Thomas S , Farinu O , Woolfork M , Walker CL . Soc Sci Humanit Open 2024 9 COVID-19 vaccination campaigns across the US were implemented to mitigate the disproportionate hospitalizations and unnecessary deaths across many communities that experienced unequal gaps in initial vaccine distribution rollout and uptake. In parallel, the COVID-19 pandemic created declines in routine vaccination coverage for adults, adolescents, and children; particularly, in communities experiencing overlapping social disadvantage. Community-based efforts offer a solution to narrow immunization gaps but have not been replicated consistently nor demonstrated widespread success during the pandemic as evidenced by prevailing disparities in immunization uptake. We offer an equity centered implementation science approach that involves co-designing, co-implementing, and co-evaluating solutions with the community and all partners investing in the shared goal of sustainable improvement in health outcomes. © 2024 |
Length of antibiotic therapy among adults hospitalized with uncomplicated community-acquired pneumonia, 2013-2020
McCarthy NL , Baggs J , Wolford H , Kazakova SV , Kabbani S , Attell BK , Neuhauser MM , Walker L , Yi SH , Hatfield KM , Reddy S , Hicks LA . Infect Control Hosp Epidemiol 2024 1-7 OBJECTIVE: The 2014 US National Strategy for Combating Antibiotic-Resistant Bacteria (CARB) aimed to reduce inappropriate inpatient antibiotic use by 20% for monitored conditions, such as community-acquired pneumonia (CAP), by 2020. We evaluated annual trends in length of therapy (LOT) in adults hospitalized with uncomplicated CAP from 2013 through 2020. METHODS: We conducted a retrospective cohort study among adults with a primary diagnosis of bacterial or unspecified pneumonia using International Classification of Diseases Ninth and Tenth Revision codes in MarketScan and the Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services databases. We included patients with length of stay (LOS) of 2-10 days, discharged home with self-care, and not rehospitalized in the 3 days following discharge. We estimated inpatient LOT based on LOS from the PINC AI Healthcare Database. The total LOT was calculated by summing estimated inpatient LOT and actual postdischarge LOT. We examined trends from 2013 to 2020 in patients with total LOT >7 days, which was considered an indicator of likely excessive LOT. RESULTS: There were 44,976 and 400,928 uncomplicated CAP hospitalizations among patients aged 18-64 years and ≥65 years, respectively. From 2013 to 2020, the proportion of patients with total LOT >7 days decreased by 25% (68% to 51%) among patients aged 18-64 years and by 27% (68%-50%) among patients aged ≥65 years. CONCLUSIONS: Although likely excessive LOT for uncomplicated CAP patients decreased since 2013, the proportion of patients treated with LOT >7 days still exceeded 50% in 2020. Antibiotic stewardship programs should continue to pursue interventions to reduce likely excessive LOT for common infections. |
Postintervention immunological and entomological survey of lymphatic filariasis in the City of Olinda, Brazil, 2015-2016
Ramesh A , Oliveira P , Cameron M , Castanha PMS , Walker T , Lenhart A , Impoinvil L , Alexander N , Medeiros Z , Sá A , Rocha A , Souza WV , Maciel A , Braga C . Am J Trop Med Hyg 2024 Lymphatic filariasis (LF) is a leading cause of disability due to infectious disease worldwide. The Recife Metropolitan Region (RMR) is the only remaining focus of LF in Brazil, where the parasite Wuchereria bancrofti is transmitted solely by the mosquito Culex quinquefasciatus. This study reports the results of transmission assessment surveys and molecular xenomonitoring in the city of Olinda, RMR, after nearly 15 years (2015-2016) of interventions for LF elimination. Participants were screened for W. bancrofti antigen via immunochromatographic card tests (ICT) in: 1) door-to-door surveys conducted for all children aged 5-7 years from 4 out of 17 intervention areas treated with at least five annual doses of mass drug administration (MDA), and 2) a two-stage cluster sampling survey of residents aged 5 years and older in non-MDA areas. Mosquitoes were collected via handheld aspirators in four MDA areas, differentiated by species, sex, and physiological status, pooled into groups of up to 10 blood-fed, semigravid, and gravid mosquitoes, and screened for W. bancrofti infection by real-time quantitative polymerase chain reaction (RT-qPCR). All 1,170 children from MDA areas and the entire population sample of 990 residents in non-MDA areas were ICT negative. In MDA areas, a total of 3,152 female Cx. quinquefasciatus mosquitoes in 277 households (range, 0-296 mosquitoes per house) were collected via aspiration. RT-qPCR of 233 pools of mosquitos were negative for W. bancrofti RNA; an independent reference laboratory confirmed these results. These results provide evidence that LF transmission has been halted in this setting. |
Diarrhea in young children from low-income countries leads to large-scale alterations in intestinal microbiota composition.
Pop M , Walker AW , Paulson J , Lindsay B , Antonio M , Hossain MA , Oundo J , Tamboura B , Mai V , Astrovskaya I , Corrada Bravo H , Rance R , Stares M , Levine MM , Panchalingam S , Kotloff K , Ikumapayi UN , Ebruke C , Adeyemi M , Ahmed D , Ahmed F , Alam MT , Amin R , Siddiqui S , Ochieng JB , Ouma E , Juma J , Mailu E , Omore R , Morris JG , Breiman RF , Saha D , Parkhill J , Nataro JP , Stine OC . Genome Biol 2014 15 (6) R76 BACKGROUND: Diarrheal diseases continue to contribute significantly to morbidity and mortality in infants and young children in developing countries. There is an urgent need to better understand the contributions of novel, potentially uncultured, diarrheal pathogens to severe diarrheal disease, as well as distortions in normal gut microbiota composition that might facilitate severe disease. RESULTS: We use high throughput 16S rRNA gene sequencing to compare fecal microbiota composition in children under five years of age who have been diagnosed with moderate to severe diarrhea (MSD) with the microbiota from diarrhea-free controls. Our study includes 992 children from four low-income countries in West and East Africa, and Southeast Asia. Known pathogens, as well as bacteria currently not considered as important diarrhea-causing pathogens, are positively associated with MSD, and these include Escherichia/Shigella, and Granulicatella species, and Streptococcus mitis/pneumoniae groups. In both cases and controls, there tend to be distinct negative correlations between facultative anaerobic lineages and obligate anaerobic lineages. Overall genus-level microbiota composition exhibit a shift in controls from low to high levels of Prevotella and in MSD cases from high to low levels of Escherichia/Shigella in younger versus older children; however, there was significant variation among many genera by both site and age. CONCLUSIONS: Our findings expand the current understanding of microbiota-associated diarrhea pathogenicity in young children from developing countries. Our findings are necessarily based on correlative analyses and must be further validated through epidemiological and molecular techniques. |
The third international hackathon for applying insights into large-scale genomic composition to use cases in a wide range of organisms.
Walker K , Kalra D , Lowdon R , Chen G , Molik D , Soto DC , Dabbaghie F , Khleifat AA , Mahmoud M , Paulin LF , Raza MS , Pfeifer SP , Agustinho DP , Aliyev E , Avdeyev P , Barrozo ER , Behera S , Billingsley K , Chong LC , Choubey D , De Coster W , Fu Y , Gener AR , Hefferon T , Henke DM , Höps W , Illarionova A , Jochum MD , Jose M , Kesharwani RK , Kolora SRR , Kubica J , Lakra P , Lattimer D , Liew CS , Lo BW , Lo C , Lötter A , Majidian S , Mendem SK , Mondal R , Ohmiya H , Parvin N , Peralta C , Poon CL , Prabhakaran R , Saitou M , Sammi A , Sanio P , Sapoval N , Syed N , Treangen T , Wang G , Xu T , Yang J , Zhang S , Zhou W , Sedlazeck FJ , Busby B . F1000Res 2022 11 530 In October 2021, 59 scientists from 14 countries and 13 U.S. states collaborated virtually in the Third Annual Baylor College of Medicine & DNANexus Structural Variation hackathon. The goal of the hackathon was to advance research on structural variants (SVs) by prototyping and iterating on open-source software. This led to nine hackathon projects focused on diverse genomics research interests, including various SV discovery and genotyping methods, SV sequence reconstruction, and clinically relevant structural variation, including SARS-CoV-2 variants. Repositories for the projects that participated in the hackathon are available at https://github.com/collaborativebioinformatics. |
Triangulation of routine antenatal HIV prevalence data and adjusted HIV estimates in Mozambique
Stevens O , Boothe M , Tiberi O , Mahy M , Walker P , Glaubius R , McOwen J , Couto A , Cunha M , Imai-Eaton JW . J Acquir Immune Defic Syndr 2024 95 e70-e80 BACKGROUND: Routine health system data are central to monitoring HIV trends. In Mozambique, the reported number of women receiving antenatal care (ANC) and antiretroviral therapy for prevention of mother-to-child transmission (PMTCT) has exceeded the Spectrum-estimated number of pregnant women since 2017. In some provinces, reported HIV prevalence in pregnant women has declined faster than epidemiologically plausible. We hypothesized that these issues are linked and caused by programmatic overenumeration of HIV-negative pregnant women at ANC. METHODS: We triangulated program-reported ANC client numbers with survey-based fertility estimates and facility birth data adjusted for the proportion of facility births. We used survey-reported ANC attendance to produce adjusted time series of HIV prevalence in pregnant women, adjusted for hypothesized program double counting. We calibrated the Spectrum HIV estimation models to adjusted HIV prevalence data to produce adjusted adult and pediatric HIV estimates. RESULTS: ANC client numbers were not consistent with facility birth data or modeled population estimates indicating ANC data quality issues in all provinces. Adjusted provincial ANC HIV prevalence in 2021 was median 45% [interquartile range 35%-52% or 2.3 percentage points (interquartile range 2.5-3.5)] higher than reported HIV prevalence. In 2021, calibrating to adjusted antenatal HIV prevalence lowered PMTCT coverage to less than 100% in most provinces and increased the modeled number of new child infections by 35%. The adjusted results better reconciled adult and pediatric antiretroviral treatment coverage and antenatal HIV prevalence with regional fertility estimates. CONCLUSIONS: Adjusting HIV prevalence in pregnant women using nationally representative household survey data on ANC attendance produced estimates more consistent with surveillance data. The number of children living with HIV in Mozambique has been substantially underestimated because of biased routine ANC prevalence. Renewed focus on HIV surveillance among pregnant women would improve PMTCT coverage and pediatric HIV estimates. |
Characteristics and clinical outcomes of vaccine-eligible US children under-5 years hospitalized for acute COVID-19 in a national network
Zambrano LD , Newhams MM , Simeone RM , Fleming-Dutra KE , Halasa N , Wu M , Orzel-Lockwood AO , Kamidani S , Pannaraj PS , Chiotos K , Cameron MA , Maddux AB , Schuster JE , Crandall H , Kong M , Nofziger RA , Staat MA , Bhumbra SS , Irby K , Boom JA , Sahni LC , Hume JR , Gertz SJ , Maamari M , Bowens C , Levy ER , Bradford TT , Walker TC , Schwartz SP , Mack EH , Guzman-Cottrill JA , Hobbs CV , Zinter MS , Cvijanovich NZ , Bline KE , Hymes SR , Campbell AP , Randolph AG . Pediatr Infect Dis J 2023 BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVES: In June 2022, the mRNA COVID-19 vaccination was recommended for young children. We examined clinical characteristics and factors associated with vaccination status among vaccine-eligible young children hospitalized for acute COVID-19. METHODS: We enrolled inpatients aged 8 months to <5 years with acute community-acquired COVID-19 across 28 US pediatric hospitals from September 20, 2022 to May 31, 2023. We assessed demographic and clinical factors, including the highest level of respiratory support, and vaccination status defined as unvaccinated, incomplete, or complete primary series [at least 2 (Moderna) or 3 (Pfizer-BioNTech) mRNA vaccine doses ≥14 days before hospitalization]. RESULTS: Among 597 children, 174 (29.1%) patients were admitted to the intensive care unit and 75 (12.6%) had a life-threatening illness, including 51 (8.5%) requiring invasive mechanical ventilation. Children with underlying respiratory and neurologic/neuromuscular conditions more frequently received higher respiratory support. Only 4.5% of children hospitalized for COVID-19 (n = 27) had completed their primary COVID-19 vaccination series and 7.0% (n = 42) of children initiated but did not complete their primary series. Among 528 unvaccinated children, nearly half (n = 251) were previously healthy, 3 of them required extracorporeal membrane oxygenation for acute COVID-19 and 1 died. CONCLUSIONS: Most young children hospitalized for acute COVID-19, including most children admitted to the intensive care unit and with life-threatening illness, had not initiated COVID-19 vaccination despite being eligible. Nearly half of these children had no underlying conditions. Of the small percentage of children who initiated a COVID-19 primary series, most had not completed it before hospitalization. |
Identifying workforce education, training, and outreach needs in decentralized wastewater and distributed water reuse
Holodak Jamie , Stanley Jacob K , Cox Alissa H , Groves Thomas W , Jantrania Anish , Moeller Jeffrey , Neset Kris , Walker Christopher , Zhang Harry , Heger Sara F , Brooks Bryan W . J Environ Health 2023 86 (5) 20-28 Although decentralized wastewater and distributed water reuse professionals represent a key part of environmental public health and environmental engineering, an understanding of workforce challenges has remained elusive. Here we begin to address the critical need of understanding education, training, and outreach needs for decentralized wastewater and distributed water reuse. We specifically engaged professionals working in health departments and other government agencies, industry, academia, and nongovernmental organizations. We examined workforce characteristics related to education, training, and outreach. We found that 37% of decentralized wastewater and distributed water reuse professionals plan to retire within 5 years, approximately 25% of these professionals do not hold any type of certification, and education and training are insufficient to meet current workforce demands. We further report 10 problem statements associated with timely education, training, and outreach needs, which represent important opportunities for improving the practice of decentralized wastewater and distributed water reuse. Strategic education, training, and outreach activities are necessary to ensure workforce preparedness, to promote education with owners of onsite technologies, and to expand advanced training and translational research programs in decentralized wastewater and distributed water reuse. Our findings can specifically support decision making aimed at sustaining and advancing the decentralized wastewater and distributed water reuse workforce. |
Promoting health literacy with empathetic and inclusive communication
Augustosky Traci , Walker Kathleen , Chatham Allison , Meadows Don , Marlin-Guanga Yvanna . J Environ Health 2023 86 (5) 50-51 The article offers strategies on how to promote health literacy in environmental public health programs. Topics mentioned include the importance of using inclusive communication and relatable and authentic visuals, several ways on how to address uncertainty and challenges facing a health threat, and some steps to provide manageable empathetic health communication. |
Notes from the field: Early identification of the SARS-CoV-2 Omicron BA.2.86 variant by the traveler-based genomic surveillance program - Dulles International Airport, August 2023
Bart SM , Rothstein AP , Philipson CW , Smith TC , Simen BB , Tamin A , Atherton LJ , Harcourt JL , Taylor Walker A , Payne DC , Ernst ET , Morfino RC , Ruskey I , Friedman CR . MMWR Morb Mortal Wkly Rep 2023 72 (43) 1168-1169 During August 13–14, 2023, a new SARS-CoV-2 Omicron subvariant with a large number of mutations compared with previously circulating BA.2 variants (>30 amino acid differences in its spike protein) was identified by genomic sequencing in Denmark and Israel and subsequently designated BA.2.86 (1,2). Given near-simultaneous detections in multiple countries, including the United States, further information was needed regarding geographic spread of BA.2.86. Since January 2022, submissions to SARS-CoV-2 sequence repositories have declined by 95%,* substantially decreasing global capacity to monitor new variants. To fill gaps in global surveillance, CDC’s Traveler-based Genomic Surveillance (TGS) program was developed to provide early warning of new variants entering the United States by collecting samples from arriving international travelers (3). |
Vital signs for pediatric health: High school graduation
Hoagwood K , Walker DK , Edwards A , Kaminski JW , Kelleher KJ , Spandorfer J , Fox EG . NAM Perspect 2023 2023 In 2015, the Institute of Medicine (now the National Academy of Medicine) released the report Vital Signs: Core Metrics for Health and Health Care Progress as a “basic, minimum slate of core metrics for use as sentinel indices of performance at various levels with respect to the key elements of health and health care progress” (IOM, 2015). Although indicators of pediatric health were included in that report as key elements of healthy behaviors, healthy communities, and preventive services, the core measures in the report emphasized indicators of adult health. This series of papers, “Vital Signs for Pediatric Health”, describes four metrics across the pediatric life course, each measuring how well the health care system is building the physical, cognitive, and socio-emotional health of the pediatric population, thereby laying the foundation for life-long health and well-being. The metrics—infant mortality, school readiness, chronic absenteeism, and high school graduation—were selected to focus on four different developmental stages of growth. A standardized set of core metrics to assess pediatric health could provide data to support health systems in identifying important areas for attention among their pediatric population and enable them to respond in a timely way. This rapid response is especially important in pediatric health systems as children undergo rapid development within a short time span. | | This paper discusses one of those four measures—high school graduation—as a pediatric vital sign because it reflects more than a number. Successful completion of high school also reflects the degree to which healthy growth and development has been supported throughout childhood. Earning a high school diploma is a predictor of adult success, including better employment outcomes, better adult physical and mental health, and decreased likelihood of involvement with the criminal justice system (NCES, 2021b; Blackwell et al., 2014; Lochner and Moretti, 2004). Those who do not graduate from high school face a greater likelihood of health risks as adults, including lower life expectancy, limited employment prospects, lower lifetime wages, and increased risk of incarceration (APHA, 2018). | | The remainder of this paper defines high school graduation rate, the selection of the specific measure that can assess high school graduation, and the technical integrity of the measure. The paper also describes disparities by state, race and ethnicity, and socio-economic status and delineates the importance of a high school diploma, including impacts on employment, future earnings, and individual health. It is important to note that the General Equivalency Diploma (GED) is not considered in this paper. Research shows that adults with GEDs have health outcomes more similar to high school dropouts than to graduates and perform at the level of dropouts in the labor market (Zajacova, 2012; Heckman and LaFontaine, 2007). Finally, the paper lays out the challenges in linking education data with health systems data to help communities have a broader impact on improving the health and well-being of their populations, implementation challenges more broadly, and potential ways to improve use of this metric to increase high school graduation rates. |
Vital signs for pediatric health: Infant mortality
Kelleher KJ , Hoagwood K , Walker DK , Kaminski JW , Gardner W , Fox EG . NAM Perspect 2023 2023 In 2015, the Institute of Medicine (now the National Academy of Medicine) released the report Vital Signs: Core Metrics for Health and Health Care Progress as a “basic, minimum slate of core metrics for use as sentinel indices of performance at various levels with respect to the key elements of health and health care progress” (IOM, 2015). Although indicators of pediatric health were included in that report as key elements of healthy behaviors, healthy communities, and preventive services, the core measures in the report emphasized indicators of adult health. This series of papers, “Vital Signs for Pediatric Health”, describes four metrics across the pediatric life course, each measuring how well the health care system is building the physical, cognitive, and socio-emotional health of the pediatric population, thereby laying the foundation for life-long health and well-being. The metrics—infant mortality, school readiness, chronic absenteeism, and high school graduation—were selected to focus on four different developmental stages of growth. A standardized set of core metrics to assess pediatric health could provide data to support health systems in identifying important areas for attention among their pediatric population and enable them to respond in a timely way. This rapid response is especially important in pediatric health systems as children undergo rapid development within a short time span. | | This paper discusses one of those four measures—infant mortality rate (IMR)—as a measure of the early period of life. IMR is used globally as a key indicator of child survival. As a measure, it is sensitive to improvements in care for both women and children, is associated with other well-being indicators in communities, and reflects health inequities in the community (ChildStats, 2021; Ely et al., 2017). | | This paper defines IMR and describes why it is a critical pediatric vital sign, then articulates the value of reducing disparities in IMR. Finally, the paper lays out the challenges to using IMR as an indicator for health system accountability. |
Effectiveness of maternal mRNA COVID-19 vaccination during pregnancy against COVID-19-associated hospitalizations in infants aged <6 months during SARS-cov-2 Omicron predominance - 20 states, March 9, 2022-May 31, 2023
Simeone RM , Zambrano LD , Halasa NB , Fleming-Dutra KE , Newhams MM , Wu MJ , Orzel-Lockwood AO , Kamidani S , Pannaraj PS , Irby K , Maddux AB , Hobbs CV , Cameron MA , Boom JA , Sahni LC , Kong M , Nofziger RA , Schuster JE , Crandall H , Hume JR , Staat MA , Mack EH , Bradford TT , Heidemann SM , Levy ER , Gertz SJ , Bhumbra SS , Walker TC , Bline KE , Michelson KN , Zinter MS , Flori HR , Campbell AP , Randolph AG . MMWR Morb Mortal Wkly Rep 2023 72 (39) 1057-1064 Infants aged <6 months are not eligible for COVID-19 vaccination. Vaccination during pregnancy has been associated with protection against infant COVID-19-related hospitalization. The Overcoming COVID-19 Network conducted a case-control study during March 9, 2022-May 31, 2023, to evaluate the effectiveness of maternal receipt of a COVID-19 vaccine dose (vaccine effectiveness [VE]) during pregnancy against COVID-19-related hospitalization in infants aged <6 months and a subset of infants aged <3 months. VE was calculated as (1 - adjusted odds ratio) x 100% among all infants aged <6 months and <3 months. Case-patients (infants hospitalized for COVID-19 outside of birth hospitalization and who had a positive SARS-CoV-2 test result) and control patients (infants hospitalized for COVID-19-like illness with a negative SARS-CoV-2 test result) were compared. Odds ratios were determined using multivariable logistic regression, comparing the odds of receipt of a maternal COVID-19 vaccine dose (completion of a 2-dose vaccination series or a third or higher dose) during pregnancy with maternal nonvaccination between case- and control patients. VE of maternal vaccination during pregnancy against COVID-19-related hospitalization was 35% (95% CI = 15%-51%) among infants aged <6 months and 54% (95% CI = 32%-68%) among infants aged <3 months. Intensive care unit admissions occurred in 23% of all case-patients, and invasive mechanical ventilation was more common among infants of unvaccinated (9%) compared with vaccinated mothers (1%) (p = 0.02). Maternal vaccination during pregnancy provides some protection against COVID-19-related hospitalizations among infants, particularly those aged <3 months. Expectant mothers should remain current with COVID-19 vaccination to protect themselves and their infants from hospitalization and severe outcomes associated with COVID-19. |
Age-specific probability of 4 major health outcomes in children with spina bifida
Gilbertson KE , Liu T , Wiener JS , Walker WO Jr , Smith K , Castillo J , Castillo H , Wilson P , Peterson P , Clayton GH , Valdez R . J Dev Behav Pediatr 2023 44 (9) e633-e641 OBJECTIVE: This study aimed to estimate the age-specific probability of 4 health outcomes in a large registry of individuals with spina bifida (SB). METHODS: The association between age and 4 health outcomes was examined in individuals with myelomeningocele (MMC, n = 5627) and non-myelomeningocele (NMMC, n = 1442) from the National Spina Bifida Patient Registry. Sixteen age categories were created, 1 for each year between the ages of 5 and 19 years and 1 for those aged 20 years or older. Generalized linear models were used to calculate the adjusted probability and 95% prediction intervals of each outcome for each age category, adjusting for sex and race/ethnicity. RESULTS: For the MMC and NMMC groups, the adjusted coefficients for the correlation between age and the probability of each outcome were -0.933 and -0.657 for bladder incontinence, -0.922 and -0.773 for bowel incontinence, 0.942 and 0.382 for skin breakdown, and 0.809 and 0.619 for lack of ambulation, respectively. CONCLUSION: In individuals with SB, age is inversely associated with the probability of bladder and bowel incontinence and directly associated with the probability of skin breakdown and lack of ambulation. The estimated age-specific probabilities of each outcome can help SB clinicians estimate the expected proportion of patients with the outcome at specific ages and explain the probability of the occurrence of these outcomes to patients and their families. |
Sodium and potassium consumption in Jamaica: National estimates and associated factors from the Jamaica Health and Lifestyle Survey 2016-2017
Ferguson TS , Younger-Coleman NOM , Webster-Kerr K , Tulloch-Reid MK , Bennett NR , Davidson T , Grant AS , Gordon-Johnson KM , Govia I , Soares-Wynter S , McKenzie JA , Walker E , Cunningham-Myrie CA , Anderson SG , Blake AL , Ho J , Stephenson R , Edwards SE , McFarlane SR , Spence S , Wilks RJ . Medicine (Baltimore) 2023 102 (40) e35308 This study aimed to estimate dietary sodium and potassium consumption among Jamaicans and evaluate associations with sociodemographic and clinical characteristics. A cross-sectional study was conducted using data from the Jamaica Health and Lifestyle Survey 2016-2017. Participants were noninstitutionalized Jamaicans aged ≥15 years. Trained staff collected sociodemographic and health data via interviewer-administered questionnaires and spot urine samples. The Pan American Health Organization formula was used to estimate 24-hour urine sodium and potassium excretion. High sodium level was defined as ≥2000 mg/day, and low potassium levels as <3510 mg/day (World Health Organization criteria). Associations between these outcomes and sociodemographic and clinical characteristics were explored using multivariable ANOVA models using log-transformed 24-hour urine sodium and potassium as outcome variables. Analyses included 1009 participants (368 males, 641 females; mean age 48.5 years). The mean sodium excretion was 3582 mg/day (males 3943 mg/day, females 3245 mg/day, P < .001). The mean potassium excretion was 2052 mg/day (males, 2210 mg/day; females, 1904 mg/day; P = .001). The prevalence of high sodium consumption was 66.6% (males 72.8%, females 60.7%, P < .001) and that of low potassium intake was 88.8% (85.1% males, 92.3% females, P < .001). Sodium consumption was inversely associated with older age, higher education, and low glomerular filtration rate but was directly associated with being male, current smoking, and obesity. Overall, males had higher sodium consumption than women, with the effect being larger among hypertensive men. Women with hypertension had lower sodium consumption than nonhypertensive women; however, hypertensive men had higher sodium consumption than nonhypertensive men. Potassium consumption was higher among men, persons with obesity, and those with high total cholesterol but was lower among men with "more than high school" education compared to men with "less than high school" education. We conclude that most Jamaican adults have diets high in sodium and low in potassium. In this study, sodium consumption was directly associated with male sex, obesity, and current smoking but was inversely associated with older age and higher education. High potassium consumption was associated with obesity and high cholesterol levels. These associations should be further explored in longitudinal studies and population-based strategies should be developed to address these cardiovascular risk factors. |
Gut microbiome perturbation, antibiotic resistance, and Escherichia coli strain dynamics associated with international travel: a metagenomic analysis
Worby CJ , Sridhar S , Turbett SE , Becker MV , Kogut L , Sanchez V , Bronson RA , Rao SR , Oliver E , Walker AT , Walters MS , Kelly P , Leung DT , Knouse MC , Hagmann SHF , Harris JB , Ryan ET , Earl AM , LaRocque RC . Lancet Microbe 2023 4 (10) e790-e799 BACKGROUND: Culture-based studies have shown that acquisition of extended-spectrum β-lactamase-producing Enterobacterales is common during international travel; however, little is known about the role of the gut microbiome before and during travel, nor about acquisition of other antimicrobial-resistant organisms. We aimed to identify (1) whether the gut microbiome provided colonisation resistance against antimicrobial-resistant organism acquisition, (2) the effect of travel and travel behaviours on the gut microbiome, and (3) the scale and global heterogeneity of antimicrobial-resistant organism acquisition. METHODS: In this metagenomic analysis, participants were recruited at three US travel clinics (Boston, MA; New York, NY; and Salt Lake City, UT) before international travel. Participants had to travel internationally between Dec 8, 2017, and April 30, 2019, and have DNA extractions for stool samples both before and after travel for inclusion. Participants were excluded if they had at least one low coverage sample (<1 million read pairs). Stool samples were collected at home before and after travel, sent to a clinical microbiology laboratory to be screened for three target antimicrobial-resistant organisms (extended-spectrum β-lactamase-producing Enterobacterales, carbapenem-resistant Enterobacterales, and mcr-mediated colistin-resistant Enterobacterales), and underwent DNA extraction and shotgun metagenomic sequencing. We profiled metagenomes for taxonomic composition, antibiotic-resistant gene content, and characterised the Escherichia coli population at the strain level. We analysed pre-travel samples to identify the gut microbiome risk factors associated with acquisition of the three targeted antimicrobial resistant organisms. Pre-travel and post-travel samples were compared to identify microbiome and resistome perturbation and E coli strain acquisition associated with travel. FINDINGS: A total of 368 individuals travelled between the required dates, and 296 had DNA extractions available for both before and after travel. 29 travellers were excluded as they had at least one low coverage sample, leaving a final group of 267 participants. We observed a perturbation of the gut microbiota, characterised by a significant depletion of microbial diversity and enrichment of the Enterobacteriaceae family. Metagenomic strain tracking confirmed that 67% of travellers acquired new strains of E coli during travel that were phylogenetically distinct from their pre-travel strains. We observed widespread enrichment of antibiotic-resistant genes in the gut, with a median 15% (95% CI 10-20, p<1 × 10(-10)) increase in burden (reads per kilobase per million reads). This increase included antibiotic-resistant genes previously classified as threats to public health, which were 56% (95% CI 36-91, p=2 × 10(-11)) higher in abundance after travel than before. Fluoroquinolone antibiotic-resistant genes were aquired by 97 (54%) of 181 travellers with no detected pre-travel carriage. Although we found that visiting friends or relatives, travel to south Asia, and eating uncooked vegetables were risk factors for acquisition of the three targeted antimicrobial resistant organisms, we did not observe an association between the pre-travel microbiome structure and travel-related antimicrobial-resistant organism acquisition. INTERPRETATION: This work highlights a scale of E coli and antimicrobial-resistant organism acquisition by US travellers not apparent from previous culture-based studies, and suggests that strategies to control antimicrobial-resistant organisms addressing international traveller behaviour, rather than modulating the gut microbiome, could be worthwhile. FUNDING: US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention and National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases. |
Annual (2023) taxonomic update of RNA-directed RNA polymerase-encoding negative-sense RNA viruses (realm Riboviria: kingdom Orthornavirae: phylum Negarnaviricota)
Kuhn JH , Abe J , Adkins S , Alkhovsky SV , Avšič-Županc T , Ayllón MA , Bahl J , Balkema-Buschmann A , Ballinger MJ , Kumar Baranwal V , Beer M , Bejerman N , Bergeron É , Biedenkopf N , Blair CD , Blasdell KR , Blouin AG , Bradfute SB , Briese T , Brown PA , Buchholz UJ , Buchmeier MJ , Bukreyev A , Burt F , Büttner C , Calisher CH , Cao M , Casas I , Chandran K , Charrel RN , Kumar Chaturvedi K , Chooi KM , Crane A , Dal Bó E , Carlos de la Torre J , de Souza WM , de Swart RL , Debat H , Dheilly NM , Di Paola N , Di Serio F , Dietzgen RG , Digiaro M , Drexler JF , Duprex WP , Dürrwald R , Easton AJ , Elbeaino T , Ergünay K , Feng G , Firth AE , Fooks AR , Formenty PBH , Freitas-Astúa J , Gago-Zachert S , Laura García M , García-Sastre A , Garrison AR , Gaskin TR , Gong W , Gonzalez JJ , de Bellocq J , Griffiths A , Groschup MH , Günther I , Günther S , Hammond J , Hasegawa Y , Hayashi K , Hepojoki J , Higgins CM , Hongō S , Horie M , Hughes HR , Hume AJ , Hyndman TH , Ikeda K , Jiāng D , Jonson GB , Junglen S , Klempa B , Klingström J , Kondō H , Koonin EV , Krupovic M , Kubota K , Kurath G , Laenen L , Lambert AJ , Lǐ J , Li JM , Liu R , Lukashevich IS , MacDiarmid RM , Maes P , Marklewitz M , Marshall SH , Marzano SL , McCauley JW , Mirazimi A , Mühlberger E , Nabeshima T , Naidu R , Natsuaki T , Navarro B , Navarro JA , Neriya Y , Netesov SV , Neumann G , Nowotny N , Nunes MRT , Ochoa-Corona FM , Okada T , Palacios G , Pallás V , Papa A , Paraskevopoulou S , Parrish CR , Pauvolid-Corrêa A , Pawęska JT , Pérez DR , Pfaff F , Plemper RK , Postler TS , Rabbidge LO , Radoshitzky SR , Ramos-González PL , Rehanek M , Resende RO , Reyes CA , Rodrigues TCS , Romanowski V , Rubbenstroth D , Rubino L , Runstadler JA , Sabanadzovic S , Sadiq S , Salvato MS , Sasaya T , Schwemmle M , Sharpe SR , Shi M , Shimomoto Y , Kavi Sidharthan V , Sironi M , Smither S , Song JW , Spann KM , Spengler JR , Stenglein MD , Takada A , Takeyama S , Tatara A , Tesh RB , Thornburg NJ , Tian X , Tischler ND , Tomitaka Y , Tomonaga K , Tordo N , Tu C , Turina M , Tzanetakis IE , Maria Vaira A , van den Hoogen B , Vanmechelen B , Vasilakis N , Verbeek M , von Bargen S , Wada J , Wahl V , Walker PJ , Waltzek TB , Whitfield AE , Wolf YI , Xia H , Xylogianni E , Yanagisawa H , Yano K , Ye G , Yuan Z , Zerbini FM , Zhang G , Zhang S , Zhang YZ , Zhao L , Økland AL . J Gen Virol 2023 104 (8) In April 2023, following the annual International Committee on Taxonomy of Viruses (ICTV) ratification vote on newly proposed taxa, the phylum Negarnaviricota was amended and emended. The phylum was expanded by one new family, 14 new genera, and 140 new species. Two genera and 538 species were renamed. One species was moved, and four were abolished. This article presents the updated taxonomy of Negarnaviricota as now accepted by the ICTV. |
Assessing the utility of pregnant women as a sentinel surveillance population for malaria in Geita, Tanzania, 2019 - 2021
Munsey A , Kinyina A , Assenga M , Almeida A , Kitojo C , Reaves E , Simeo J , Aron S , Chacky F , Nhiga SL , Drake M , Lemwayi R , Walker P , Gutman JR . Int J Infect Dis 2023 136 57-63 OBJECTIVES: Estimates of malaria burden and intervention uptake in Africa are primarily based on household surveys. However, their expense and infrequency limit their utility. We investigated whether data collected during antenatal care (ANC) can provide relevant information for decision-makers. METHODS: Malaria test positivity rates and questionnaire data from ANC attendees at 39 health facilities were compared to questionnaire data and positivity rates among children from two cross-sectional surveys in the facilities' corresponding catchment areas. RESULTS: Trends in parasitemia among ANC attendees were predictive of trends in parasitemia among children at the council level (mean absolute error 6.0%). Primigravid ANC attendees had the lowest rates of net ownership (modeled odds ratio, OR, 0.28, 95% confidence interval, CI, 0.19 - 0.40) and use (OR 0.58, 95% CI 0.42 - 0.79). ANC attendees reported higher levels of care seeking (OR 1.78, 95% CI 1.48 - 2.14), malaria testing (OR 4.16, 95% CI 3.44 - 5.04), and treatment for children with fever (OR 7.66, 95% CI 4.89 - 11.98) compared to women surveyed in households, raising concerns about social desirability bias disproportionately impacting ANC surveys. CONCLUSION: ANC surveillance is an effective strategy for tracking trends in malaria burden. More work is required to elucidate the value in administering questionnaires to ANC attendees. |
Insights from a national survey in 2021 and from modelling on progress towards hepatitis C virus elimination in the country of Georgia since 2015
Walker JG , Tskhomelidze I , Shadaker S , Tsereteli M , Handanagic S , Armstrong PA , Gamkrelidze A , Vickerman P . Euro Surveill 2023 28 (30) BackgroundBetween May 2015 and February 2022, 77,168 hepatitis C virus (HCV)-infected people in Georgia have been treated through an HCV elimination programme. To project the programme's long-term impacts, an HCV infection model was initially developed, based on data from surveys among people who inject drugs and a national serosurvey in 2015.AimAccounting for follow-up surveys in 2021, we validate and update projections of HCV infection prevalence and incidence.MethodWe assessed the initial model projections' accuracy for overall prevalence, by age, sex, and among people who ever injected drugs, compared with 2021 serosurvey data. We used 2021 results to weight model fits and to recalculate the national programme's impact leading up to March 2022 on HCV infection incidence rates. Cases and deaths averted were estimated. The impact of reduced treatment rates during the COVID-19 pandemic was assessed.ResultsThe original model overpredicted adult (≥ 18 years old) chronic HCV infection prevalence for 2021 (2.7%; 95% credible interval (CrI): 1.9-3.5%) compared with a 2021 serosurvey (1.8%; 95% confidence interval (CI): 1.3-2.4%). Weighted model projections estimated a 60% decrease in HCV infection incidence by March 2022, with an absolute incidence of 66 (95% CrI: 34-131) per 100,000 person-years (overall population). Between May 2015 and March 2022, 9,186 (95% CrI: 5,396-16,720) infections and 842 (95% CrI: 489-1,324) deaths were averted. The COVID-19 pandemic resulted in 13,344 (95% CrI: 13,236-13,437) fewer treatments and 438 (95% CrI: 223-744) fewer averted infections by March 2022.ConclusionResults support the programme's high effectiveness. At current treatment rate (406/month), 90% reductions in prevalence and incidence in Georgia are achievable by 2030. |
The US Federal Retail Pharmacy Program: Optimizing COVID-19 vaccine delivery through a strategic public-private partnership
Kim C , Guo A , Yassanye D , Link-Gelles R , Yates K , Duggar C , Moore L , El Kalach R , Jones-Jack N , Walker C , Gibbs Scharf L , Pillai SK , Patel A . Public Health Rep 2023 138 (6) 333549231186606 To help achieve the initial goal of providing universal COVID-19 vaccine access to approximately 258 million adults in 62 US jurisdictions, the federal government launched the Federal Retail Pharmacy Program (FRPP) on February 11, 2021. We describe FRPP's collaboration among the federal government, US jurisdictions, federal entity partners, and 21 national chain and independent pharmacy networks to provide large-scale access to COVID-19 vaccines, particularly in communities disproportionately affected by COVID-19 (eg, people aged ≥65 years, people from racial and ethnic minority groups). FRPP initially provided 10 000 vaccination sites for people to access COVID-19 vaccines, which was increased to >35 000 vaccination sites by May 2021 and sustained through January 31, 2022. From February 11, 2021, through January 31, 2022, FRPP vaccination sites received 293 million doses and administered 219 million doses, representing 45% of all COVID-19 immunizations provided nationwide (38% of all first doses, 72% of all booster doses). This unprecedented public-private partnership allowed the federal government to rapidly adapt and scale up an equitable vaccination program to reach adults, later expanding access to vaccine-eligible children, during the COVID-19 pandemic. As the largest federal COVID-19 vaccination program, FRPP exemplifies how public-private partnerships can expand access to immunizations during a public health emergency. Pharmacies can help meet critical national public health goals by serving as convenient access points for sustained health services. Lessons learned from this effort-including the importance of strong coordination and communication, efficient reporting systems and data quality, and increasing access to and demand for vaccine, among others-may help improve future immunization programs and support health system resiliency, emphasizing community-level access and health equity during public health emergencies. |
The United States COVID-19 Forecast Hub dataset (preprint)
Cramer EY , Huang Y , Wang Y , Ray EL , Cornell M , Bracher J , Brennen A , Rivadeneira AJC , Gerding A , House K , Jayawardena D , Kanji AH , Khandelwal A , Le K , Mody V , Mody V , Niemi J , Stark A , Shah A , Wattanchit N , Zorn MW , Reich NG , US COVID-19 Forecast Hub Consortium , Lopez VK , Walker JW , Slayton RB , Johansson MA , Biggerstaff M . medRxiv 2021 2021.11.04.21265886 Academic researchers, government agencies, industry groups, and individuals have produced forecasts at an unprecedented scale during the COVID-19 pandemic. To leverage these forecasts, the United States Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) partnered with an academic research lab at the University of Massachusetts Amherst to create the US COVID-19 Forecast Hub. Launched in April 2020, the Forecast Hub is a dataset with point and probabilistic forecasts of incident hospitalizations, incident cases, incident deaths, and cumulative deaths due to COVID-19 at national, state, and county levels in the United States. Included forecasts represent a variety of modeling approaches, data sources, and assumptions regarding the spread of COVID-19. The goal of this dataset is to establish a standardized and comparable set of short-term forecasts from modeling teams. These data can be used to develop ensemble models, communicate forecasts to the public, create visualizations, compare models, and inform policies regarding COVID-19 mitigation. These open-source data are available via download from GitHub, through an online API, and through R packages.Competing Interest StatementAV, MC, and APP report grants from Metabiota Inc outside the submitted work. Funding StatementFor teams that reported receiving funding for their work, we report the sources and disclosures below: AIpert-pwllnod: Natural Sciences and Engineering Research Council of Canada; Caltech-CS156: Gary Clinard Innovation Fund; CEID-Walk: University of Georgia; CMU-TimeSeries: CDC Center of Excellence, gifts from Google and Facebook; COVIDhub: This work has been supported by the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (1U01IP001122) and the National Institutes of General Medical Sciences (R35GM119582). The content is solely the responsibility of the authors and does not necessarily represent the official views of CDC, NIGMS or the National Institutes of Health; Johannes Bracher was supported by the Helmholtz Foundation via the SIMCARD Information & Data Science Pilot Project; Tilmann Gneiting gratefully acknowledges support by the Klaus Tschira Foundation; CU-select: NSF DMS-2027369 and a gift from the Morris-Singer Foundation; DDS-NBDS: NSF III-1812699; epiforecasts-ensemble1: Wellcome Trust (210758/Z/18/Z) FDANIHASU: supported by the Intramural Research Program of the NIH/NIDDK; GT_CHHS-COVID19: William W. George Endowment, Virginia C. and Joseph C. Mello Endowment, NSF DGE-1650044, NSF MRI 1828187, research cyberinfrastructure resources and services provided by the Partnership for an Advanced Computing Environment (PACE) at Georgia Tech, and the following benefactors at Georgia Tech: Andrea Laliberte, Joseph C. Mello, Richard Rick E. & Charlene Zalesky, and Claudia & Paul Raines, CDC MInD-Healthcare U01CK000531-Supplement; IHME: This work was supported by the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation, as well as funding from the state of Washington and the National Science Foundation (award no. FAIN: 2031096); Imperial-ensemble1: SB acknowledges funding from the Wellcome Trust (219415); Institute of Business Forecasting: IBF; IowaStateLW-STEM: NSF DMS-1916204, Iowa State University Plant Sciences Institute Scholars Program, NSF DMS-1934884, Laurence H. Baker Center for Bioinformatics and Biological Statistics; IUPUI CIS: NSF; JHU_CSSE-DECOM: JHU CSSE: National Science Foundation (NSF) RAPID Real-time Forecasting of COVID-19 risk in the USA. 2021-2022. Award ID: 2108526. National Science Foundation (NSF) RAPID Development of an interactive web-based dashboard to track COVID-19 in real-time. 2020. Award ID: 2028604; JHU_IDD-CovidSP: State of California, US Dept of Health and Human Services, US Dept of Homeland Security, Johns Hopkins Health System, Office of the Dean at Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health, Johns Hopkins University Modeling and Policy Hub, Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (5U01CK000538-03), University of Utah Immunology, Inflammation, & Infectious Disease Initiative (26798 Seed Grant); JHU_UNC_GAS-StatMechP ol: NIH NIGMS: R01GM140564; JHUAPL-Bucky: US Dept of Health and Human Services; KITmetricslab-select_ensemble: Daniel Wolffram gratefully acknowledges support by the Klaus Tschira Foundation; LANL-GrowthRate: LANL LDRD 20200700ER; MIT-Cassandra: MIT Quest for Intelligence; MOBS-GLEAM_COVID: COVID Supplement CDC-HHS-6U01IP001137-01; CA NU38OT000297 from the Council of State and Territorial Epidemiologists (CSTE); NotreDame-FRED: NSF RAPID DEB 2027718; NotreDame-mobility: NSF RAPID DEB 2027718; PSI-DRAFT: NSF RAPID Grant # 2031536; QJHong-Encounter: NSF DMR-2001411 and DMR-1835939; SDSC_ISG-TrendModel: The development of the dashboard was partly funded by the Fondation Privee des Hopitaux Universitaires de Geneve; UA-EpiCovDA: NSF RAPID Grant # 2028401; UChicagoCHATTOPADHYAY-UnIT: Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency (DARPA) #HR00111890043/P00004 (I. Chattopadhyay, University of Chicago); UCSB-ACTS: NSF RAPID IIS 2029626; UCSD_NEU-DeepGLEAM: Google Faculty Award, W31P4Q-21-C-0014; UMass-MechBayes: NIGMS #R35GM119582, NSF #1749854, NIGMS #R35GM119582; UMich-RidgeTfReg: This project is funded by the University of Michigan Physics Department and the University of Michigan Office of Research; UVA-Ensemble: National Institutes of Health (NIH) Grant 1R01GM109718, NSF BIG DATA Grant IIS-1633028, NSF Grant No.: OAC-1916805, NSF Expeditions in Computing Grant CCF-1918656, CCF-1917819, NSF RAPID CNS-2028004, NSF RAPID OAC-2027541, US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention 75D30119C05935, a grant from Google, University of Virginia Strategic Investment Fund award number SIF160, Defense Threat Reduction Agency (DTRA) under Contract No. HDTRA1-19-D-0007, and Virginia Dept of Health Grant VDH-21-501-0141; Wadnwani_AI-BayesOpt: This study is made possible by the generous support of the American People through the United States Agency for International Development (USAID). The work described in this article was implemented under the TRACETB Project, managed by WIAI under the terms of Cooperative Agreement Number 72038620CA00006. The contents of this manuscript are the sole responsibility of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the views of USAID or the United States Government; WalmartLabsML-LogForecasting: Team acknowledges Walmart to support this study Author DeclarationsI confirm all relevant ethical guidelines have been followed, and any necessary IRB and/or ethics committee approvals have been obtained.YesI confirm that all necessary patient/participant consent has been obtained and the appropriate institutional forms have been archived, and that any patient/participant/sample identifiers included were not known to anyone (e.g., hospital staff, patients or participants themselves) outside the research group so cannot be used to identify individuals.YesI understand that all clinical trials and any other prospective interventional studies must be registered with an ICMJE-approved registry, such as ClinicalTrials.gov. I confirm that any such study reported in the manuscript has been registered and the trial registration ID is provided (note: if posting a prospective study registered retrospectively, please provide a statement in the trial ID field explaining why the study was not registered in advance).YesI have followed all appropriate research reporting guidelines and uploaded the relevant EQUATOR Network research reporting checklist(s) and other pertinent material as supplementary files, if applicable.YesAll data produced are available online at https://github.com/reichlab/covid19-forecast-hub https://github.com/reichlab/covid19-forecast-hub |
Using real-time data to guide decision-making during an influenza pandemic: a modelling analysis (preprint)
Haw DJ , Biggerstaff M , Prasad P , Walker J , Grenfell B , Arinaminpathy N . medRxiv 2021 2021.06.09.21258618 Influenza pandemics typically occur in multiple waves of infection, often associated with initial emergence of a novel virus, followed (in temperate regions) by a later resurgence accompanying the onset of the annual influenza season. Here, we examined whether data collected from an initial pandemic wave could be informative, for the need to implement non-pharmaceutical measures in any resurgent wave. Drawing from the 2009 H1N1 pandemic in 10 states in the USA, we calibrated simple mathematical models of influenza transmission dynamics to data for virologically confirmed hospitalisations during the initial ‘spring’ wave. We then projected pandemic outcomes (cumulative hospitalisations) during the fall wave, and compared these projections with data. Model results show reasonable agreement for all states that reported a substantial number of cases in the spring wave. Using this model we propose a probabilistic decision framework that can be used to determine the need for pre-emptive measures such as postponing school openings, in advance of a fall wave. This work illustrates how model-based evidence synthesis, in real-time during an early pandemic wave, could be used to inform timely decisions for pandemic response.Competing Interest StatementThe authors have declared no competing interest.Funding StatementAll work funded by the USA Centre for Disease Control and Prevention.Author DeclarationsI confirm all relevant ethical guidelines have been followed, and any necessary IRB and/or ethics committee approvals have been obtained.YesThe details of the IRB/oversight body that provided approval or exemption for the research described are given below:NAAll necessary patient/participant consent has been obtained and the appropriate institutional forms have been archived.YesI understand that all clinical trials and any other prospective interventional studies must be registered with an ICMJE-approved registry, such as ClinicalTrials.gov. I confirm that any such study reported in the manuscript has been registered and the trial registration ID is provided (note: if posting a prospective study registered retrospectively, please provide a statement in the trial ID field explaining why the study was not registered in advance).YesI have followed all appropriate research reporting guidelines and uploaded the relevant EQUATOR Network research reporting checklist(s) and other pertinent material as supplementary files, if applicable.YesAll data (FluSurNet) is freely available online. https://www.cdc.gov/flu/weekly/influenza-hospitalization-surveillance.htm |
Evaluation of individual and ensemble probabilistic forecasts of COVID-19 mortality in the US (preprint)
Cramer EY , Ray EL , Lopez VK , Bracher J , Brennen A , Castro Rivadeneira AJ , Gerding A , Gneiting T , House KH , Huang Y , Jayawardena D , Kanji AH , Khandelwal A , Le K , Mühlemann A , Niemi J , Shah A , Stark A , Wang Y , Wattanachit N , Zorn MW , Gu Y , Jain S , Bannur N , Deva A , Kulkarni M , Merugu S , Raval A , Shingi S , Tiwari A , White J , Abernethy NF , Woody S , Dahan M , Fox S , Gaither K , Lachmann M , Meyers LA , Scott JG , Tec M , Srivastava A , George GE , Cegan JC , Dettwiller ID , England WP , Farthing MW , Hunter RH , Lafferty B , Linkov I , Mayo ML , Parno MD , Rowland MA , Trump BD , Zhang-James Y , Chen S , Faraone SV , Hess J , Morley CP , Salekin A , Wang D , Corsetti SM , Baer TM , Eisenberg MC , Falb K , Huang Y , Martin ET , McCauley E , Myers RL , Schwarz T , Sheldon D , Gibson GC , Yu R , Gao L , Ma Y , Wu D , Yan X , Jin X , Wang YX , Chen Y , Guo L , Zhao Y , Gu Q , Chen J , Wang L , Xu P , Zhang W , Zou D , Biegel H , Lega J , McConnell S , Nagraj VP , Guertin SL , Hulme-Lowe C , Turner SD , Shi Y , Ban X , Walraven R , Hong QJ , Kong S , van de Walle A , Turtle JA , Ben-Nun M , Riley S , Riley P , Koyluoglu U , DesRoches D , Forli P , Hamory B , Kyriakides C , Leis H , Milliken J , Moloney M , Morgan J , Nirgudkar N , Ozcan G , Piwonka N , Ravi M , Schrader C , Shakhnovich E , Siegel D , Spatz R , Stiefeling C , Wilkinson B , Wong A , Cavany S , España G , Moore S , Oidtman R , Perkins A , Kraus D , Kraus A , Gao Z , Bian J , Cao W , Lavista Ferres J , Li C , Liu TY , Xie X , Zhang S , Zheng S , Vespignani A , Chinazzi M , Davis JT , Mu K , Pastore YPiontti A , Xiong X , Zheng A , Baek J , Farias V , Georgescu A , Levi R , Sinha D , Wilde J , Perakis G , Bennouna MA , Nze-Ndong D , Singhvi D , Spantidakis I , Thayaparan L , Tsiourvas A , Sarker A , Jadbabaie A , Shah D , Della Penna N , Celi LA , Sundar S , Wolfinger R , Osthus D , Castro L , Fairchild G , Michaud I , Karlen D , Kinsey M , Mullany LC , Rainwater-Lovett K , Shin L , Tallaksen K , Wilson S , Lee EC , Dent J , Grantz KH , Hill AL , Kaminsky J , Kaminsky K , Keegan LT , Lauer SA , Lemaitre JC , Lessler J , Meredith HR , Perez-Saez J , Shah S , Smith CP , Truelove SA , Wills J , Marshall M , Gardner L , Nixon K , Burant JC , Wang L , Gao L , Gu Z , Kim M , Li X , Wang G , Wang Y , Yu S , Reiner RC , Barber R , Gakidou E , Hay SI , Lim S , Murray C , Pigott D , Gurung HL , Baccam P , Stage SA , Suchoski BT , Prakash BA , Adhikari B , Cui J , Rodríguez A , Tabassum A , Xie J , Keskinocak P , Asplund J , Baxter A , Oruc BE , Serban N , Arik SO , Dusenberry M , Epshteyn A , Kanal E , Le LT , Li CL , Pfister T , Sava D , Sinha R , Tsai T , Yoder N , Yoon J , Zhang L , Abbott S , Bosse NI , Funk S , Hellewell J , Meakin SR , Sherratt K , Zhou M , Kalantari R , Yamana TK , Pei S , Shaman J , Li ML , Bertsimas D , Skali Lami O , Soni S , Tazi Bouardi H , Ayer T , Adee M , Chhatwal J , Dalgic OO , Ladd MA , Linas BP , Mueller P , Xiao J , Wang Y , Wang Q , Xie S , Zeng D , Green A , Bien J , Brooks L , Hu AJ , Jahja M , McDonald D , Narasimhan B , Politsch C , Rajanala S , Rumack A , Simon N , Tibshirani RJ , Tibshirani R , Ventura V , Wasserman L , O'Dea EB , Drake JM , Pagano R , Tran QT , Ho LST , Huynh H , Walker JW , Slayton RB , Johansson MA , Biggerstaff M , Reich NG . medRxiv 2021 2021.02.03.21250974 Short-term probabilistic forecasts of the trajectory of the COVID-19 pandemic in the United States have served as a visible and important communication channel between the scientific modeling community and both the general public and decision-makers. Forecasting models provide specific, quantitative, and evaluable predictions that inform short-term decisions such as healthcare staffing needs, school closures, and allocation of medical supplies. In 2020, the COVID-19 Forecast Hub (https://covid19forecasthub.org/) collected, disseminated, and synthesized hundreds of thousands of specific predictions from more than 50 different academic, industry, and independent research groups. This manuscript systematically evaluates 23 models that regularly submitted forecasts of reported weekly incident COVID-19 mortality counts in the US at the state and national level. One of these models was a multi-model ensemble that combined all available forecasts each week. The performance of individual models showed high variability across time, geospatial units, and forecast horizons. Half of the models evaluated showed better accuracy than a naïve baseline model. In combining the forecasts from all teams, the ensemble showed the best overall probabilistic accuracy of any model. Forecast accuracy degraded as models made predictions farther into the future, with probabilistic accuracy at a 20-week horizon more than 5 times worse than when predicting at a 1-week horizon. This project underscores the role that collaboration and active coordination between governmental public health agencies, academic modeling teams, and industry partners can play in developing modern modeling capabilities to support local, state, and federal response to outbreaks.Competing Interest StatementAV, MC, and APP report grants from Metabiota Inc outside the submitted work.Funding StatementFor teams that reported receiving funding for their work, we report the sources and disclosures below. CMU-TimeSeries: CDC Center of Excellence, gifts from Google and Facebook. CU-select: NSF DMS-2027369 and a gift from the Morris-Singer Foundation. COVIDhub: This work has been supported by the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (1U01IP001122) and the National Institutes of General Medical Sciences (R35GM119582). The content is solely the responsibility of the authors and does not necessarily represent the official views of CDC, NIGMS or the National Institutes of Health. Johannes Bracher was supported by the Helmholtz Foundation via the SIMCARD Information& Data Science Pilot Project. Tilmann Gneiting gratefully acknowledges support by the Klaus Tschira Foundation. DDS-NBDS: NSF III-1812699. EPIFORECASTS-ENSEMBLE1: Wellcome Trust (210758/Z/18/Z) GT_CHHS-COVID19: William W. George Endowment, Virginia C. and Joseph C. Mello Endowments, NSF DGE-1650044, NSF MRI 1828187, research cyberinfrastructure resources and services provided by the Partnership for an Advanced Computing Environment (PACE) at Georgia Tech, and the following benefactors at Georgia Tech: Andrea Laliberte, Joseph C. Mello, Richard Rick E. & Charlene Zalesky, and Claudia & Paul Raines GT-DeepCOVID: CDC MInD-Healthcare U01CK000531-Supplement. NSF (Expeditions CCF-1918770, CAREER IIS-2028586, RAPID IIS-2027862, Medium IIS-1955883, NRT DGE-1545362), CDC MInD program, ORNL and funds/computing resources from Georgia Tech and GTRI. IHME: This work was supported by the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation, as well as funding from the state of Washington and the National Science Foundation (award no. FAIN: 2031096). IowaStateLW-STEM: Iowa State University Plant Sciences Institute Scholars Program, NSF DMS-1916204, NSF CCF-1934884, Laurence H. Baker Center for Bioinformatics and Biological Statistics. JHU_IDD-CovidSP: State of California, US Dept of Health and Human Services, US Dept of Homeland Security, US Office of Foreign Disaster Assistance, Johns Hopkins Health System, Office of the Dean at Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health, Johns Hopkins University Modeling and Policy Hub, Centers fo Disease Control and Prevention (5U01CK000538-03), University of Utah Immunology, Inflammation, & Infectious Disease Initiative (26798 Seed Grant). LANL-GrowthRate: LANL LDRD 20200700ER. MOBS-GLEAM_COVID: COVID Supplement CDC-HHS-6U01IP001137-01. NotreDame-mobility and NotreDame-FRED: NSF RAPID DEB 2027718 UA-EpiCovDA: NSF RAPID Grant # 2028401. UCSB-ACTS: NSF RAPID IIS 2029626. UCSD-NEU: Google Faculty Award, DARPA W31P4Q-21-C-0014, COVID Supplement CDC-HHS-6U01IP001137-01. UMass-MechBayes: NIGMS R35GM119582, NSF 1749854. UMich-RidgeTfReg: The University of Michigan Physics Department and the University of Michigan Office of Research.Author DeclarationsI confirm all relevant ethical guidelines have been followed, and any necessary IRB and/or ethics committee approvals have been obtained.YesThe details of the IRB/oversight body that provided approval or exemption for the research described are given below:UMass-Amherst IRBAll necessary patient/participant consent has been obtained and the appropriate institutional forms have been archived.YesI understand that all clinical trials and any other prospective interventional studies must be registered with an ICMJE-approved registry, such as ClinicalTrials.gov. I confirm that any such study reported in the manuscript has been registered and the trial registration ID is provided (note: if posting a prospective study registered retrospectively, please provide a statement in the trial ID field explaining why the study was not registered in advance).YesI have followed all appropriate research reporting guidelines and uploaded the relevant EQUATOR Network research reporting checklist(s) and other pertinent material as supplementary files, if applicable.YesAll data and code referred to in the manuscript are publicly available. https://github.com/reichlab/covid19-forecast-hub/ https://github.com/reichlab/covidEnsembles https://zoltardata.com/project/44 |
Reduced long-lasting insecticidal net efficacy and pyrethroid insecticide resistance are associated with over-expression of CYP6P4, CYP6P3 and CYP6Z1 in populations of Anopheles coluzzii from South-East Côte d’Ivoire (preprint)
Meiwald A , Clark E , Kristan M , Edi C , Jeffries CL , Pelloquin B , Irish SR , Walker T , Messenger LA . bioRxiv 2020 2020.09.24.311639 Background Resistance to major public health insecticides in Côte d’Ivoire has intensified and now threatens the long-term effectiveness of malaria vector control interventions.Methods This study evaluated the bioefficacy of conventional and next-generation long-lasting insecticidal nets (LLINs), determined resistance profiles, and characterized molecular and metabolic mechanisms in wild Anopheles coluzzii from South-East Côte d’Ivoire in 2019.Results Phenotypic resistance was intense: more than 25% of mosquitoes survived exposure to ten times the doses of pyrethroids required to kill susceptible populations. Similarly, 24-hour mortality to deltamethrin-only LLINs was very low and not significantly different to an untreated net. Sub-lethal pyrethroid exposure did not induce significant delayed vector mortality 72 hours later. In contrast, LLINs containing the synergist piperonyl butoxide (PBO), or new insecticides, clothianidin and chlorfenapyr, were highly toxic to An. coluzzii. Pyrethroid-susceptible An. coluzzii were significantly more likely to be infected with malaria, compared to those that survived insecticidal exposure. Pyrethroid resistance was associated with significant over-expression of CYP6P4, CPY6Z1 and CYP6P3.Conclusions Study findings raise concerns regarding the operational failure of standard LLINs and support the urgent deployment of vector control interventions incorporating PBO, chlorfenapyr or clothianidin in areas of high resistance intensity in Côte d’Ivoire.Competing Interest StatementThe authors have declared no competing interest. |
An assessment of adult mosquito collection techniques for studying species abundance and diversity in Maferinyah, Guinea (preprint)
Cansado-Utrilla C , Jeffries CL , Kristan M , Brugman VA , Heard P , Camara G , Sylla M , Beavogui AH , Messenger LA , Walker T . bioRxiv 2019 772822 Background Guinea is a West African country with a high prevalence of vector-borne diseases where few entomological studies have been undertaken. Although several mosquito collection methods are routinely used for surveillance in vector control programmes, they target different behaviours causing bias in species diversity and abundance. Given the paucity of mosquito trap data in West Africa, we compared the performance of five trap-lure combinations and Human Landing Catches (HLCs) in Guinea.Methods Five mosquito traps were compared in a 5×5 Latin Square design for 15 days in three villages in Guinea between June and July 2018. CDC light traps, BG sentinel 2 traps (with BG and MB5 lures), gravid traps and Stealth traps were deployed for 24-hour intervals with mosquitoes collected every 12 hours (day and night collections). HLCs were also performed for 15 nights. A Generalised Linear Mixed Model was applied to compare the effect of the traps, sites and collection times on the mosquito abundance. Species identification was confirmed using PCR-based analysis and Sanger sequencing.Results In total, 10,610 mosquitoes were captured across all five traps. Significantly more mosquitoes (P<0.005) were collected by Stealth traps (7,096) compared to the rest of the traps. Stealth traps and BG sentinel 2 traps were the best at capturing An. gambiae and Ae. aegypti mosquitoes respectively. HLCs captured predominantly An. coluzzii (41%) and hybrids of An. gambiae s.s. / An. coluzzii (36%) in contrast to the five adult traps, which captured predominantly An. melas (83%). Senguelen (rural) presented the highest abundance of mosquitoes and overall diversity in comparison with Fandie (semi-rural) and Maferinyah Centre One (semi-urban). To our knowledge, four species are reported for the first time in Guinea.Conclusions Stealth traps presented the best performance overall, suggesting that this trap may play an important role for mosquito surveillance in Guinea and similar sites in West Africa. We recommend the incorporation of molecular tools in entomological studies since it has helped to reveal, together with morphological identification, the presence of 25 mosquito species in this area.BG2BG sentinel 2 trapBG2-BGBG sentinel 2 trap with BG lureBG2-MB5BG sentinel 2 trap with MB5 lureGLMMgeneralized linear mixed modelGTGravid trapHLCHuman Landing CatchLTCDC light trapSTStealth trap |
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